Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 190.610566 226.734266 269.933603 326.026216 397.859228 488.052706 6.119591e+02
2025-09-21 148.271000 191.600798 249.435559 334.441450 460.081946 645.675642 9.545448e+02
2025-09-28 120.872663 165.282620 229.285584 332.273078 502.220570 788.838672 1.353392e+03
2025-10-05 109.376919 157.152641 230.879128 359.868160 596.592824 1053.445584 2.135336e+03
2025-10-12 99.809535 149.346887 230.274153 382.433759 689.560916 1362.593594 3.284537e+03
2025-10-19 91.353447 141.409441 227.227975 399.027774 776.889611 1710.821591 4.939993e+03
2025-10-26 83.526315 133.014424 221.398028 408.220272 851.947757 2079.532335 7.229986e+03
2025-11-02 76.266349 124.379988 213.338212 410.437333 911.733726 2451.677105 1.029666e+04
2025-11-09 68.949272 114.568312 201.259414 400.755942 937.627885 2741.681795 1.373427e+04
2025-11-16 62.760645 106.026591 190.283197 390.948770 959.923560 3043.285558 1.830269e+04
2025-11-23 57.385725 98.368807 179.927710 380.241886 976.010687 3341.804387 2.423075e+04
2025-11-30 56.157971 98.552908 185.946468 411.797636 1140.161265 4479.027654 4.707591e+04
2025-12-07 52.657250 93.967129 181.303788 415.555527 1218.352473 5339.843914 7.862061e+04
2025-12-14 50.158128 91.137821 180.192079 429.068481 1342.814605 6710.271237 1.574451e+05
2025-12-21 46.936582 86.431139 174.034872 426.581213 1404.594827 7813.047303 2.863102e+05
2025-12-28 46.280441 87.088176 180.685781 464.795427 1669.961267 11295.674770 1.167150e+06
2026-01-04 45.198994 86.676339 184.657563 496.185004 1934.440783 15945.202984 7.967123e+06
2026-01-11 43.764759 85.301061 185.962091 519.365357 2181.925503 21859.519070 2.238783e+08
2026-01-18 42.001062 82.974353 184.413525 532.243889 2387.281518 28733.407396 NaN
2026-01-25 40.015836 79.926549 180.481122 535.354171 2539.340701 36127.786121 NaN
2026-02-01 37.621101 75.688912 172.716808 521.786763 2571.118024 41247.567270 NaN
2026-02-08 35.430641 71.757197 165.339825 508.074935 2595.246365 46864.642598 NaN
2026-02-15 33.388954 68.018247 158.071239 493.142447 2601.952734 52505.297663 NaN